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February 25, 2016


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Not really true at all.

In 2014 Rove predicted that Republicans would expand their House lead, they did. Their Senate lead, they did. Their lead in state legislatures, they did. Lest you think that Rove only predicted well for Republicans, he also predicted that Obama would increase his approval number for the year, and he did from 53 to 54 percent.

Rove also makes some wrong predictions. In 2014 he predicted that Republicans would lose two state governors, they gained two. He also predicted that Kathleen Sebelius would overcome her problems and would be serving at the end of the year. Not true.

That's the way of political prognostication. You win some and you lose some. On balance, Rove is a pretty good political prognosticator. Even the vaunted Nate Silver misses his fair share.

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